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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

00

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Apr 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

00

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

00

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

00

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

00

What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?

Key Factor

Progress faster than previous year

21
1.8 this week

Key Factor

Progress faster than previous year