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Will a rogue Artificial Intelligence system, acting autonomously, cause at least the following numbers of deaths before 2050?
1 million
?
100,000
?
1,000
?
2 others
1
10 comments
10
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
91%
1488 forecasters
222
148 comments
148
AGI Outcomes
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Forecast data is empty
no comments
0
What will be the best performance on SWE-bench Verified by December 31st 2025?
Forecast data is empty
no comments
0
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Forecast data is empty
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0
What will be the best performance on OSWorld by December 31st 2025?
Forecast data is empty
no comments
0
What will be the best performance on FrontierMath by December 31st 2025?
Forecast data is empty
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0
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of Medium or higher on Cybersecurity?
Forecast data is empty
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0
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
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no comments
0
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
Forecast data is empty
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