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Contributed by the Unjournal Forecasting community.

How many evaluation packages will The Unjournal post in the year 2025?

Key Factor

Level of engagement of field specialist team

Key Factor

Level of engagement of field specialist team

Which show will win the 2025 Nickelodeon Kids' Choice Award for Favorite Cartoon?

SpongeBob SquarePantsresult: Yes
Dragon Ball Daimaresult: No
The Loud Houseresult: No
and 3 others

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Pro scale model by Google?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Llama 4 Behemoth scale model by Meta?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Gemini 2.5 Flash scale model by Google?