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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Opus 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

63%chance
27% this week

How many months ahead of the rest of the world will the US be in the following AI benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

RE-Bench3.39
FrontierMath3.45
Top Capabilities Benchmark3.39

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

A brief but hopeful vignette

4
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE44%
Naura31%
Nata30%
and 1 other

How many vehicles will Tesla report producing in each of the following years?

20406.22M
20355.41M
20325.39M
and 4 others

The State of Metaculus

13
38 comments38