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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will an 8 hour, 80% reliability time horizon be achieved on METR’s Autonomy Tasks by a Claude Sonnet 4 scale model by Anthropic?

Sharpen the Respiratory Outlook for 2024/25

7
4 comments4
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
xAI10%
and 14 others

Contributed by the Brown University Forecasting Team community.

Will OpenAI release o4 or o5-mini/o5-mini-high by September 1, 2025?

76%chance
7% this week

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

Announcing a Metaculus Academy Summer Series for New Forecasters

18
8 comments8
Academy Summer Series

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

Action Ontologies, Computer Ontologies

19
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

The Patchwork Future: An Exercise in Interpolation

5
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest