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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

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Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

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Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

Nov 2031

Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

Annulled

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 2 days