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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

77%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

result13 Jun 2025 03:00

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

1%chance

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

18%chance
8% this week

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

28%chance

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance