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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

2
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Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

5
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Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

How many of the following countries will enact a national-level law that restricts the deployment of high-risk AI systems before 2030?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

What will be the total US public spending on AI-related contracts in 2029?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

Will any regulatory body ban the deployment of AI agents within an OECD country before 2030?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%chance
13% today

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

075.3%
116.1%
26.4%
and 2 others

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine