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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win72.1%
Nathan Young win25.8%
Other2.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

00

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

076.6%
115.5%
25.9%
and 2 others

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

3 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 comment1

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

30%chance
5% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy