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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

5
no comments0
Nuclear Risk Tournament

Reducing Nuclear Risk Through Improved US-China Relations

13
2 comments2
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?

10%chance

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance

Will China reach 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030?

Key Factor

1000 warheads expected by 2029

75%chance

Key Factor

1000 warheads expected by 2029

Will the US President continue to have unrestricted authority to use nuclear weapons by 2030?

95%chance

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Forecasting Nuclear Risk in 2022

34
7 comments7
Ukraine Conflict