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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

4%chance
26% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

10%chance

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%chance
6% this week

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

Forecast revealed in 41 seconds

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 3 minutes

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

15%chance
24% this week

Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?

Key Factor

Effective Israeli missile defense

resultYes

Key Factor

Effective Israeli missile defense

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

50%chance
5% this week

Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before July 1, 2025?

resultNo