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Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?

10%chance
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

7 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%
25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

12%
12%
1 comment1

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

26%chance

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

20%chance
27% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

8%chance

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

75%chance

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

1%chance

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

16.2%chance
8.8% this week