Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ค๐ญ
AI Benchmarking
๐บ๐ธ
2024 US Election Hub
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฝ๐ณ๏ธ
US Election Stakes
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Predictions as Public Works Project โย What Metaculus Is Building Next
1
no comments
0
How much will GiveWell update its cost-effectiveness estimate of GiveDirectly based on the results of the 2023-2024 follow-up of the Cash Transfers Study by UC Berkeley?
2
no comments
0
Five years after AGI, what % of people will be living in extreme poverty?
5.11
4
3 comments
3
Five Years After AGI
When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?
Closed
6
19 comments
19
How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?
Closed
5
7 comments
7
If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?
Closed
4
5 comments
5
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
51%
32
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
Richard Hanania's Forecasts
10
1 comment
1
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
27%
4
24 comments
24
Five Years After AGI
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
82%
6
1 comment
1
AI Safety
Load more