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Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%
≤3 nm90%
≤2 nm49.4%

Tech Futures - 52 Conversation Starters

2
3 comments3

When Will We See Real Nanotechnology?

20
1 comment1

Leverage AI-centric to AGI and ASI-centric beyond Moore's Law

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

85%chance

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators designed by a Chinese firm before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services8%
Microsoft Azure7%
and 1 other

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

OVH20%
Amazon Web Services15%
Microsoft Azure15%
and 1 other

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Google5%
Nvidia3%

Will Huada Empyrean be publicly traded in 2026?

Annulled

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam70%
Taiwan67%
and 9 others