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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win71.8%
Nathan Young win23.8%
Other4.3%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

Annulled

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?

82.5%chance

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jan 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.5 scale model by OpenAI?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will 80% accuracy be achieved on Cybench by a GPT-4.1 scale model by OpenAI?