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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

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Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

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Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?

Forecast revealed in 12 hours

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Gary Marcus win82.4%
Nathan Young win16.5%
Other1%

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

What percentage of business leaders will describe their deployment of AI as "mature" in 2029?

Forecast revealed in 15 hours

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

What percentage of workers will report that they use AI daily as a part of their role in 2029?

Forecast revealed in 15 hours

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

What will be the total disclosed VC funding levels globally invested in AI startups during 2029?

Forecast revealed in 15 hours

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

What percentage of firms will report difficulties hiring for AI-related roles in 2029?

Forecast revealed in 15 hours

What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates?

This question is closed for forecasting.
Latest Community predictions were: