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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

07 Feb 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

18 Aug 2025

The Climate Tipping Points Tournament

17
1 comment1
Climate Tipping Points

Join the Market Pulse Challenge: $7,500 in Prizes

30
2 comments2
Market Pulse Challenge

Announcing the Bentham Prize

9
8 comments8
Animal Welfare Series

Li Wenliang prize series

34
66 comments66

The Salk Tournament for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccine R&D

24
34 comments34

The Lightning Round Tournament: Comparing Metaculus Forecasters to Infectious Disease Experts

37
85 comments85
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Lightning Round Tournament Discussion 1.0

7
5 comments5
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Metaculus vs. Experts: Will experts beat Metaculus on LRT1 questions resolving before 10th of May?

Ambiguous