What will be the highest valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic before 2041?122 comments11 forecaster
Will the Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF drop at least $0.25 within two days before September 2026?16% chance0 comments116116 forecasters16%chance
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments279279 forecasters
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?85% chance544 comments5959 forecasters85%chance
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?81717 comments6666 forecasters
What will be the annual global economic cost of soil degradation in 2035?12.9T US$ (8.01T - 17T)22 comments88 forecasters12.9T US$ (8.01T - 17T)
How many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run before the first year in which gross world product exceeds 30% of its peak?1.9×10³⁰ FLOP (2.8×10²⁸ - 1.5×10³⁴)933 comments99 forecasters1.9×10³⁰ FLOP (2.8×10²⁸ - 1.5×10³⁴)
Will there be a heat wave that kills at least one million people in a single month before 2050?35% chance51010 comments3838 forecasters35%chance
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?result: no477 comments1616 forecastersResolvedNo
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?1699 comments8181 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242222 comments327327 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance374545 comments469469 forecasters25%chance
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?91515 comments4141 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?71% chance633 comments7171 forecasters71%chance
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?result: no111212 comments9898 forecastersResolvedNo
Will there be a global-level mechanism for distribution of benefits of AI before January 1, 2030?5% chance-222 comments5656 forecasters5%chance
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?05 May 2024 (30 Nov 2023 - 13 Jan 2025)91111 comments4343 forecasters05 May 2024 (30 Nov 2023 - 13 Jan 2025)