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0
comments
88
forecasters
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
Low
78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)
18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)
3.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
8
comments
35
forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
10
comments
9
forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?
15%
chance
7
comments
71
forecasters
Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?
2026
44.7%
2027
31.6%
2028
11.4%
3 others
12%
Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup
8
46
46
comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025
374
comments
1.7k
forecasters
Will humans go extinct before 2100?
1%
chance
8
comments
74
forecasters
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?
1
comment
15
forecasters
Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?
50%
chance
14
comments
63
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
20%
Microsoft
4%
Amazon
3%
14 others
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
0
comments
12
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
25%
chance
8.3%
this week
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