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0 comments
88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

8 comments
35 forecasters

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

10 comments
9 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

15%chance
7 comments
71 forecasters

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

202644.7%
202731.6%
202811.4%

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

8
4646 comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025
374 comments
1.7k forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1%chance
8 comments
74 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

1 comment
15 forecasters

Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?

50%chance
14 comments
63 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%
Microsoft4%
Amazon3%

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
12 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

25%chance
8.3% this week