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Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

7%chance

3% this week

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

30%chance

17% this week

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

5%chance

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

52%chance

8% this week

Key Factor

David Sacks opposes AI safety regulations

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

9%chance

4% this week

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

18%chance

Contributed by the AI Warning Signs community.

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

31%chance

14% this week

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Join Foresight’s AI Pathways Tournament: $5,000 Comment Prize

Will the United States and China sign a formal, verifiable bilateral treaty or accord specifically limiting Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) development by December 31, 2030?

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

Will a developed country experience >20% yearly GDP growth before 2031?

Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?

Key Factor

Key Factor

Will a cyberattack targeting AI systems cause a significant power blackout in the United States before 2028?

Will a top-5 US insurer publicly announce before 2028 that they will exclude coverage for AI systems lacking human override capabilities?

Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression explicitly due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?