Will there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?53% chance444 comments1818 forecasters53%chance
When will an agentized-LLM system like Auto-GPT be first reported to have been used to do significant real-world harm?05 May 2024 (30 Nov 2023 - 13 Jan 2025)91414 comments4343 forecastersResolved18 Mar 2025 16:00 UTC
What will be the rate of deaths (per 100,000 people) from global conflict in the following years?101313 comments7171 forecasters
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8080 forecasters
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?141212 comments9898 forecasters
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?22% chance41313 comments4545 forecasters22%chance
What will be world per capita primary energy consumption (in kWh) in the following years?599 comments6767 forecasters
Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before 2027?42% chance233 comments4545 forecasters42%chance
Will there be a 4-year interval in which world output doubles before 2050?40% chance1788 comments9393 forecasters40%chance
When will an autonomous machine governor for Escalation management be fielded by a G-20 state?>Jan 2050 (Dec 2048 - >Jan 2050)2424 comments1010 forecasters>Jan 2050 (Dec 2048 - >Jan 2050)
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?6% chance51010 comments5656 forecasters6%chance
When will an AI gain unauthorized access to systems outside its designated environment?18 Apr 2027 (02 Sep 2026 - 20 May 2028)21212 comments2020 forecasters18 Apr 2027 (02 Sep 2026 - 20 May 2028)
Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?71414 comments6969 forecasters
If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?25% chance122626 comments9696 forecasters25%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?60% chance294848 comments128128 forecasters60%chance
What will be the highest valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic before 2041?22 comments11 forecaster
What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?48.6% (21.6 - 83.9)244 comments1111 forecasters48.6% (21.6 - 83.9)