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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Gary Marcus win82%
Nathan Young win15.9%
Other2.1%

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?

resultYes

When will the first fully autonomous surgery or procedure be performed on a human?

Dec 2032

When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?

00

On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?

4.15
states

Fully autonomous self-driving cars by 2018?

resultNo

Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?

resultNo

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

27 Feb 2029

When will self-driving taxis be available in at least one large German city?

02 Nov 2029

Action Ontologies, Computer Ontologies

19
1 comment1
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