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10
comments
56
forecasters
Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?
36.6%
chance
11.4%
this week
25
comments
161
forecasters
Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?
15%
chance
10%
this week
104
comments
198
forecasters
When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
00
5
comments
3
forecasters
When, before January 1, 2029, will Uber announce a partnership with a second autonomous vehicle company (besides Waymo)?
Current estimate
13 Apr 2026
5
comments
58
forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?
Gary Marcus win
88.8%
Nathan Young win
9.2%
Other
2%
15
comments
71
forecasters
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?
Current estimate
4.29 states
14
comments
74
forecasters
On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
0.1%
chance
4
comments
29
forecasters
How many zero emission light vehicles will be available for under 40 thousand dollars (in 2022 US dollars) in the United States for the following model years?
21
comments
30
forecasters
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
86.6%
chance
11
comments
122
forecasters
Will a Tesla car demonstrate fully autonomous capability before the end of 2021?
result
No
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