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If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

91 days or more

Less than 30 days

3

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025

Not before 2026

1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025

2

New: make continuous predictions with your keyboard!

11

Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?

696 forecasters

What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?

What will the closing value of NVIDIA's stock price be on March 28, 2025?

9

Bridgewater Forecasting Contest

When will the DC cherry trees reach peak bloom in 2025?

4

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet with Donald Trump again before April 7, 2025?

50 percentage points this week

8

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?

35 percentage points this week

5

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?

11 percentage points this week

2

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025?

13

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Which of the five largest companies in the world will see the highest stock price growth in February and March, 2025?

6

🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆