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Will Obergefell v. Hodges be overturned by the US Supreme Court before 2030?

Key Factor

Textualist interpretation

10%chance

Key Factor

Textualist interpretation

Announcing the Winners of the Q2 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

5
no comments0
Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

13 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

68%
68%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

18%
18%
3
no comments0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

What will the National Science Foundation’s budget be in these fiscal years?

Key Factor

- Historical context of Trump's budget cuts

Key Factor

- Historical context of Trump's budget cuts

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Kim Davis v. David Ermold et al before January 15, 2026?

75%chance

When will the following Magic: The Gathering cards first be banned in Standard format?

00

When will any national government, international organization, or supranational body formally acknowledge the moral patienthood of an AI system?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in a case that, if decided on the merits, could hold that the US Constitution does not guarantee the right to same-sex marriage?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

What will the National Institutes of Health’s budget be in these fiscal years?

What will the National Science Foundation’s actual obligations be in these fiscal years?