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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win72.1%
Nathan Young win25.8%
Other2.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

0.5%chance
37.5% this week

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%chance
55.5% this week

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

00

Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

Key Factor

ease of filing FEC Form 1

70%chance
12% today

Key Factor

ease of filing FEC Form 1

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes