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US Democracy Index

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We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

1 1 comment

5 comments

11 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Anish Giri99.9%

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

5 comments

12 forecasters

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

53%chance

50% this week

6 comments

34 forecasters

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

community

14 Nov 2025 00:27

result

13 Nov 2025 03:15 UTC

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

4 comments

1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate

Revealed

in 2 days

1 comment

9 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Current estimate

Revealed

tomorrow

0 comments

18 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

15 comments

33 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

1883 deaths

1 comment

19 forecasters

We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

We're Hiring: Product, Engineering, Communications & Consulting Roles at Metaculus

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?