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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
4 comments
5 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Anish Giri99.9%
R Praggnanandhaa96%
Hikaru Nakamura88%

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
22 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0 comments
5 forecasters

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Current estimate
May 2037
9 comments
41 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

1 comment
40 forecasters

Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?

resultYes
8 comments
21 forecasters

When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?

Current estimate
Revealed in 4 days
4 comments
57 forecasters

How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?

Current estimate
Revealed in 4 days
4 comments
9 forecasters

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

42 comments
143 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic78.6%
Other8.3%
No Prime Minister3.9%