2 comments
33 forecasters
When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)
Current estimate
03 Nov 2025
3 comments
40 forecasters
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Current estimate
61.4%
3 comments
56 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet29.7%
OpenAI25.8%
Anthropic17.3%
6 comments
44 forecasters
What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Current estimate
16.2 pp
2 comments
46 forecasters
Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?
94%chance
2 comments
8 forecasters
Will tooth cavities rise in US states that have removed fluoride in water before 2031?
85%chance
5% today