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Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?

Resolved :Yes7%

4

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

4

Chinese AI Chips

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

119 forecasters

16

What will be the combined annual revenue of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?

Resolved :Annulled223B

3

What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?

Resolved :Below lower bound700

3

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Resolved :Yes83%

158 forecasters

10

Effective Institutions Project

When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?

Resolved :28 May 202403 Jul 2024

2

Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Resolved :Annulled

4

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

Resolved :Yes50%

5

Chinese AI Chips

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9