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Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?

191 forecasters

23

Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?

8

Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

2

Will Google release a chatbot in 2016?

4

By November 2nd, 2020, will 80% or fewer people be employed by DeepMind than the 836 employed today?

174 forecasters

18

Foresight 2020 Contest

Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?

115 forecasters

16

What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?

118 forecasters

20

What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in 2020 USD?

125 forecasters

12

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?

16