• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🌍🤲
Forecast With GiveWell
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win72.1%
Nathan Young win25.8%
Other2.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

0.5%chance
34.5% this week

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%chance
55.5% this week

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

00

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Pokrovsk15%
Myrnohrad11%
Kostiantynivka8%
and 1 other

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

076.6%
115.5%
25.9%
and 2 others

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed