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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)
3
0
comments
3
comments
36
forecasters
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Current estimate
64.8%
3
comments
37
forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet
38.3%
OpenAI
23.4%
Anthropic
14.2%
3 others
24%
26
comments
148
forecasters
Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?
95%
chance
37%
this week
8
comments
60
forecasters
How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?
3
95%
4
4.6%
0
0.1%
3 others
0%
4
comments
27
forecasters
When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?
Current estimate
02 Nov 2025
2
comments
9
forecasters
Will Russia, India, and China hold a trilateral (three-way) meeting before September 1, 2026?
62%
chance
52%
this week
2
comments
54
forecasters
Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?
5%
chance
condition
Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?
6
forecasters
if yes
if no
What will the open value of the S&P 500 be on November 2, 2025?
6514
What will the open value of the S&P 500 be on November 2, 2025?
6789
2
0
comments
6
6
forecasters
Current Events⚡
condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
1
forecaster
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
1
1
comment
1
1
forecaster
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