Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?
Yes, non-adversary owner
43.34%
Yes, still owned by foreign adversary
37.16%
No
19.5%
9
15 comments
15
Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?
Resolved :
No
29%
164 forecasters
26
63 comments
63
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
69 forecasters
12
8 comments
8
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
83%
159 forecasters
10
7 comments
7
Effective Institutions Project
When will a Chinese AI Lab train a model with at least 2.1E+24 FLOPs (~10% of GPT-4)?
Resolved :
28 May 2024
03 Jul 2024
14 forecasters
2
7 comments
7
AI in China
condition
Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?
Resolved :
Yes
9 forecasters
if yes
if no
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2026
Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known
2025
Resolved :
Annulled
2025
4
no comments
0
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?
Resolved :
No
1%
101 forecasters
19
34 comments
34
Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
107 forecasters
21
24 comments
24
condition
US TikTok ban or forced sale?
Resolved :
Yes
11 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
1%
1%
Resolved :
No
1%
US-China AI Treaty? (2025)
5%
5%
Resolved :
Annulled
5%
1
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
159 forecasters
2
8 comments
8
Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024
Load More