Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?
4.8%
38 forecasters
4
1 comment
1
Climate Tipping Points Round 2
Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?
9.9%
43 forecasters
4
3 comments
3
Regulation of AI
On January 1, 2026, in how many US states will Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service be available to the general public?
4.19 states
34 forecasters
10
11 comments
11
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
Will the California drought ease significantly this Winter?
Resolved :
No
41%
30 forecasters
3
5 comments
5
Will marijuana be voted legal in California in 2016?
Resolved :
Yes
88%
176 forecasters
24
6 comments
6
Will the California Drought end in 2017?
Resolved :
Yes
43%
107 forecasters
6
10 comments
10
Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?
Resolved :
No
30%
72 forecasters
5
12 comments
12
How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?
Resolved :
14.9
56.6
38 forecasters
3
4 comments
4
A major United States earthquake by 2023?
Resolved :
No
17%
319 forecasters
36
65 comments
65
Will California abolish daylight savings time by 2020?
Resolved :
No
42%
104 forecasters
2
18 comments
18
Load More