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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025:
1%
779 forecasters
72
349 comments
349
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years?
2025:
1%
56 forecasters
10
4 comments
4
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
12 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
35%
35%
Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
55%
55%
4
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
45%
45%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
20%
20%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
3 forecasters
if yes
if no
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
2.34
US : China Number of ML Systems (2030)
3.07
2
2 comments
2
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?
1%
18 forecasters
2
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?
10 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
25%
25%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
30%
30%
1
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox