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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature
18 comments
40 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate
2144 deaths
133 comments
301 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

48%chance

Key Factors

0 comments
12 forecasters

Will Jerome Powell cease to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before his term is up?

10%chance
40% this week
1 comment
14 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

33%chance
1 comment
15 forecasters

Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?

10%chance
38% this week
5 comments
12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%
Anish Giri99.9%
R Praggnanandhaa99.9%
0 comments
20 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

5%chance
0 comments
19 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach β‰₯4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

15 comments
16 forecasters

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H3N284.7
H1N117.9
H5<0.1
4 comments
3 forecasters

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate
2.28%