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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Jul 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

12 Jan 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

The Patchwork Future: An Exercise in Interpolation

5
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

What will be the estimated number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan by December 2024?

Annulled

Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?

12%chance

When will it be possible to buy Quantum Computing via the Cloud?

Ambiguous

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

resultNo

Will there be a frontier AI model from the given country before 2035?

India50.5%
Israel40%
Russia10%

Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?

resultYes

When will programs write programs for us?

result07 Jul 2021