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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win80.6%
Nathan Young win15.3%
Other4.1%

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
63 comments63

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Platform feature suggestions

112
2953 comments2953
Metaculus Meta

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

32%chance
17% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
5% this week

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

25%chance
37% this week

Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?

Forecast revealed tomorrow

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

30%chance