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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
94%
1492 forecasters
222
149 comments
149
AGI Outcomes
Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?
8
1 comment
1
AI Progress Essay Contest
AI Pathways Report
17
1 comment
1
Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra
15%
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus
12%
OpenAI / GPT-5
8%
20
34 comments
34
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
2025-11-10
95 forecasters
26
37 comments
37
AI Demonstrations
condition
AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?
18 forecasters
if yes
if no
Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)
20%
20%
Frontier Open-Source AI? (2025)
21%
21%
2
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
4%
82 forecasters
11
11 comments
11
Future of AI
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
OpenAI
45.18%
Anthropic
30.8%
Google DeepMind
19.1%
3 others
9
12 comments
12
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
Before 2030, how many new AI labs will be leading labs within 2 years of their founding?
0 or 1
46.88%
2 or 3
43.76%
4 or 5
5.21%
3 others
4
2 comments
2
Future of AI
In 2016, will an AI player beat a professionally ranked human in the ancient game of Go?
Resolved :
Yes
131 forecasters
40
21 comments
21
AI Demonstrations
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