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Report: Pro Forecasters Expect Steady NIH and NSF Funding

5
22 comments
Research Agencies Outlook

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

12
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
4 comments
5 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%
Anish Giri99.9%
Hikaru Nakamura95%

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
9 comments
43 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

9 comments
24 forecasters

When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?

Current estimate
Revealed in 4 days
1 comment
40 forecasters

Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?

resultYes
7 comments
61 forecasters

How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?

Current estimate
Revealed in 4 days
2 comments
3 forecasters

Who will win the UK Labour Party's Deputy Leadership election in 2025?

Bridget PhillipsonUpcoming
Lucy PowellUpcoming
Someone elseUpcoming
112 comments
127 forecasters

What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

community
82.4%
result
83.139%