Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
💸🌍
Forecast With GiveWell
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
94%
1495 forecasters
222
150 comments
150
AGI Outcomes
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
5%
126 forecasters
16
17 comments
17
AI Safety
When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?
2026-03-03
104 forecasters
20
30 comments
30
AI Demonstrations
Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?
2%
36 forecasters
14
15 comments
15
Future of AI
Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?
Resolved :
No
14%
110 forecasters
24
12 comments
12
Will we reach the island of stability by 2050?
36%
163 forecasters
25
5 comments
5
What will be the value of the (herein described) "AI winter index" at end of 2021?
Resolved :
-0.5
-0.632
79 forecasters
17
19 comments
19
By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?
5%
271 forecasters
37
60 comments
60
Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
83%
239 forecasters
52
46 comments
46
What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?
603T
63 forecasters
9
17 comments
17
Load More