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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

2347 forecasters

245

173 comments173

What percentage of the world's population will be literate in 2030?

6

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

274 forecasters

41

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

11

Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?

240 forecasters

51

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

9

When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?

105 forecasters

20

AI Demonstrations

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

118 forecasters

33

Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

4

Will quantized gravity soon be tested in the lab?

Resolved :No14%

110 forecasters

24