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Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

25%chance

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

AI safety and timelines

8
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Patchwork Future: An Exercise in Interpolation

5
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind50%
Microsoft25%
Meta14%
and 14 others

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%chance

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

04 Sep 2029

By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?

55%chance

Explainable AI and Trust Issues

8
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives