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Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?
10%
31 forecasters
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?
25%
20 forecasters
1
5 comments
5
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
How many nuclear weapons will exist on January 1, 2075?
7.28k
21 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?
Resolved :
12.5k
12.7k
119 forecasters
15
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?
Resolved :
3.8k
3.88k
71 forecasters
4
5 comments
5
Nuclear Risk Tournament
How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?
Resolved :
2
1.92
107 forecasters
15
27 comments
27
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Red Line Podcast tackles Metaculus Questions
9
2 comments
2
Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?
Resolved :
Annulled
50%
118 forecasters
9
19 comments
19
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?
Resolved :
No
25%
88 forecasters
2
9 comments
9
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
131 forecasters
8
20 comments
20
Nuclear Risk Tournament
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