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What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
1.1ร10ยนโท
124 forecasters
41
43 comments
43
Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2018?
Resolved :
No
40%
141 forecasters
11
13 comments
13
AI Technical Benchmarks
What will be the lowest tabulated cost of a teraflop of computing speed in 2018?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
26.5
47 forecasters
5
22 comments
22
When will one TeraFLOP/s cost <$1?
2029-05-17
78 forecasters
15
18 comments
18
What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?
244
33 forecasters
5
4 comments
4
Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?
Resolved :
No
70%
68 forecasters
9
41 comments
41
What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?
Resolved :
38
51.4
26 forecasters
4
2 comments
2
Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?
47.2%
29 forecasters
5
no comments
0
Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?
Resolved :
No
55%
82 forecasters
7
15 comments
15
AI Technical Benchmarks
How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?
Resolved :
2.1ร10ยฒโต
1.3ร10ยฒโต
46 forecasters
11
15 comments
15
AI Technical Benchmarks
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