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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

14 forecasters

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

0 comments

11 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

16 comments

44 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

14%chance

Key Factors

1 comment

14 forecasters

How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026?

6 or more28.7%

427.4%

527.4%

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

34%chance

4% this week

138 comments

318 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

46%chance

Key Factors

22 comments

47 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

>2193 deaths

2 comments

12 forecasters

Will President Donald J. Trump take legal action against the BBC before 2026?

Trump files a lawsuit in the USA only55.2%

Trump does not file a lawsuit in the USA or the UK22.5%

Trump files a lawsuit in both the USA and the UK14.4%

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%