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condition
OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
93 forecasters
if yes
if no
Human Extinction by 2100
1%
1%
Human Extinction by 2100
4%
4%
14
11 comments
11
AI Safety
Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?
2%
206 forecasters
20
40 comments
40
AI Safety
When will programs write programs for us?
Resolved :
Jul 7, 2021
2026-11-16
171 forecasters
59
68 comments
68
AI Demonstrations
Will GPT-4 input and/or output images?
Input Yes, Output No
Yes
Input No, Output No
No
Input No, Output Yes
No
1 other
7
10 comments
10
AI Demonstrations
Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI?
Sam Altman
Yes
Mira Murati
No
Ilya Sutskever
No
4 others
5
16 comments
16
condition
Next OpenAI CEO (Sam Altman)
Resolved :
Yes
3 forecasters
if yes
if no
OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
11%
11%
OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
13%
13%
Resolved :
Annulled
12.5%
1
no comments
0
Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
93%
59 forecasters
6
18 comments
18
Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAIโs Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
458 forecasters
12
13 comments
13
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest