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Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
232 forecasters
13
19 comments
19
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition
Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?
Resolved :
No
29 forecasters
if yes
if no
1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?
66%
66%
Resolved :
Annulled
66%
1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?
3%
3%
2
4 comments
4
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?
Resolved :
No
1%
82 forecasters
8
2 comments
2
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
115 forecasters
5
8 comments
8
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
Resolved :
No
0.2%
210 forecasters
13
27 comments
27
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition
Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?
Resolved :
No
140 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
15%
15%
Resolved :
Annulled
15%
US Iran War Before 2025?
2%
2%
Resolved :
No
2%
13
5 comments
5
Conditional Cup
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
Resolved :
No
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
45%
45%
Resolved :
Annulled
45%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
20%
20%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
Resolved :
No
47 forecasters
if yes
if no
Russia Expanded Territory in Ukraine in 2026?
45%
45%
Resolved :
Annulled
45%
Russia Expanded Territory in Ukraine in 2026?
24%
24%
1
no comments
0
Israel-Gaza Conflict
condition
Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?
Resolved :
No
28 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
0%
0%
Resolved :
Annulled
0.2%
US Iran War Before 2025?
0%
0%
Resolved :
No
0.1%
2
no comments
0
Conditional Cup
condition
Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?
Resolved :
No
30 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Iran War Before 2025?
8%
8%
Resolved :
Annulled
8%
US Iran War Before 2025?
1%
1%
Resolved :
No
1%
7
2 comments
2
Conditional Cup
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