Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?
2%
453 forecasters
56
70 comments
70
By 2100, will 2 national space agencies conclude that an interstellar object in our solar system has a non-human artificial origin?
2%
44 forecasters
6
no comments
0
When will the following space agencies launch a crewed mission?
KARI
26 Aug 2034
JAXA
18 Dec 2032
ESA
18 Mar 2032
1 other
7
17 comments
17
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?
Resolved :
No
2%
164 forecasters
20
35 comments
35
Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?
Resolved :
No
28%
125 forecasters
19
20 comments
20
When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
2447-05-01
119 forecasters
19
23 comments
23
Verity
When will the Lunar Gateway first be occupied by a crew?
2029-06-15
56 forecasters
12
13 comments
13
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Announcing the Sagan Space Tournament
18
12 comments
12
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
50%
8 forecasters
2
7 comments
7
🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?
Resolved :
No
3%
52 forecasters
3
12 comments
12
🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Load More