Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ฅ
Communities
๐ญ
Bridgewater 2025
๐ค
AI Benchmarking
๐
ACX 2025
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
67%
Democratic Republic of Congo
61.1%
52 others
34
210 comments
210
Will the following countries be part of the European Union in 2050?
Montenegro
95%
North Macedonia
83.5%
Albania
82%
17 others
25
51 comments
51
Will the โunknown pneumoniaโ outbreak in Kazakhstan turn out to be caused by a pathogen other than Covid-19?
Resolved :
No
10%
58 forecasters
4
10 comments
10
What will be the total aggregate score given to Russia by Freedom House in 2023?
Resolved :
Annulled
13.2
36 forecasters
3
7 comments
7
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
1152 forecasters
54
508 comments
508
Red Lines in Ukraine
Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?
March 1, 2023
No
July 1, 2023
No
21
45 comments
45
Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
194 forecasters
10
50 comments
50
Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?
10%
18 forecasters
4
1 comment
1