Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025
No
2026
4%
2028
20%
2 others
76
364 comments
364
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
41%
981 forecasters
108
202 comments
202
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US Iran War Before 2025?
Resolved :
No
48 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
45%
45%
Resolved :
Annulled
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2030)
20%
20%
5
1 comment
1
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?
16%
27 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?
11 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
20%
20%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
36%
36%
1
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox