Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?
0.178
32 forecasters
4
6 comments
6
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
23%
464 forecasters
58
67 comments
67
Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
5%
38 forecasters
2
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?
4.8%
26 forecasters
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?
3.57
11 forecasters
2
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?
25%
20 forecasters
1
5 comments
5
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
2%
43 forecasters
6
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
8%
18 forecasters
-1
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
21.9%
16 forecasters
1
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?
75%
100 forecasters
10
21 comments
21
Load More