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5 comments
12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%
Wei Yi99.9%
Javokhir Sindarov99.9%
0 comments
27 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach β‰₯4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments
18 forecasters

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

0 comments
11 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

1 comment
15 forecasters

How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026?

6 or more41.1%
420.2%
520.2%
20 comments
48 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

10%chance

Key Factors

1 comment
1 forecaster

Will the following countries enact mandatory military service before 2040?

Australia10%
Belgium20%
Canada10%
1 comment
21 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

48%chance
15% this week
2 comments
5 forecasters

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Current estimate
409k vehicles
22 comments
49 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate
>2193 deaths