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What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?

result1.17522M

What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?

result17.24137931

Will any state leave NATO before 2024?

resultNo

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
1 comment1
Ukraine Conflict

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives

Which countries will invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if it's invoked before 2040?

PolandAmbiguous
LatviaAmbiguous
LithuaniaAmbiguous
and 9 others

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%
Poland30%
Estonia30%
and 9 others

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

15%chance

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%chance

Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?

resultNo