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When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?
2026-03-06
104 forecasters
20
30 comments
30
AI Demonstrations
The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec
2 comments
2
AI Progress Essay Contest
Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?
10%
38 forecasters
7
1 comment
1
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.5%
430 forecasters
49
16 comments
16
Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?
63%
232 forecasters
15
57 comments
57
AGI Outcomes
Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition?
Resolved :
No
139 forecasters
38
26 comments
26
Are we in a simulated reality? Part I
Resolved :
No
146 forecasters
24
19 comments
19
New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017?
Resolved :
No
45 forecasters
10
1 comment
1
Seeing single photons: more research to come?
Resolved :
Yes
28 forecasters
7
13 comments
13
If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
437 forecasters
56
42 comments
42
Playing God Series
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