Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ฅ
Communities
๐ญ
Bridgewater 2025
๐ค
AI Benchmarking
๐
ACX 2025
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?
50%
55 forecasters
11
3 comments
3
AGI Outcomes
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
30.2
298 forecasters
34
48 comments
48
AGI Outcomes
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33%
370 forecasters
56
19 comments
19
Ragnarรถk Series
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
18.9
235 forecasters
44
36 comments
36
AGI Outcomes
Are we in a simulated reality? Part I
Resolved :
No
16%
146 forecasters
24
19 comments
19
Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?
99%
277 forecasters
29
84 comments
84
What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?
165
52 forecasters
10
8 comments
8
AGI Outcomes
Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?
13.1
23 forecasters
-13
46 comments
46
The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec
2 comments
2
AI Progress Essay Contest
If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?
2043-08-04
65 forecasters
16
7 comments
7
Load More