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Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Syria
81%
Haiti
70%
Mali
61%
70 others
30
82 comments
82
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
25%
Israel
15%
Pakistan
10%
5 others
13
11 comments
11
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
1.04 weapons
143 forecasters
26
45 comments
45
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will North Korea and South Korea be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045?
8%
115 forecasters
24
36 comments
36
Will North and South Korea be at war before 2050, according to WPR?
20%
92 forecasters
9
30 comments
30
Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?
Resolved :
Yes
70%
169 forecasters
25
26 comments
26
Will the US take military action in N. Korea?
Resolved :
No
25%
80 forecasters
17
9 comments
9
Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?
Resolved :
No
1%
410 forecasters
24
35 comments
35
How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in May 2018?
Resolved :
0
0.136
104 forecasters
2
2 comments
2
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?
Resolved :
No
31%
47 forecasters
5
10 comments
10
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